当代中国经济社会变动与人大代表选举中城乡人口比例政策的演进

在人大代表选举中实行城乡人口比例政策,是我国普选产生人大代表的历史条件所要求的。在一定时期内按不同人口比例配备代表,不但反映了共和国国体的本质,而且标志着国家工业化的发展方向。随着中国经济体制改革、城市化、工业化和城乡一体化的发展,以及城乡人口的融合,城乡按相同人口比例选举人大代表的条件已基本成熟。新中国成立以来特别是改革开放以来实行普选的过程,一定意义上是个逐步实现城乡按相同人口比例选举人大代表的政策制定、调整及其实践的过程。在这一过程中,城镇化和非农业人口的发展,成为推动城乡人口比例政策改进和发展的主要经济社会动因。     

Sample Size Determination for Categorical Responses

Abstract:  Procedures are reviewed and recommendations made for the choice of the size of a sample to estimate the characteristics (sometimes known as parameters) of a population consisting of discrete items which may belong to one and only one of a number of categories with examples drawn from forensic science. Four sampling procedures are described for binary responses, where the number of possible categories is only two, e.g., licit or illicit pills. One is based on priors informed from historical data. The other three are sequential. The first of these is a sequential probability ratio test with a stopping rule derived by controlling the probabilities of type 1 and type 2 errors. The second is a sequential variation of a procedure based on the predictive distribution of the data yet to be inspected and the distribution of the data that have been inspected, with a stopping rule determined by a prespecified threshold on the probability of a wrong decision. The third is a two-sided sequential criterion which stops sampling when one of two competitive hypotheses has a probability of being accepted which is larger than another prespecified threshold. The fifth procedure extends the ideas developed for binary responses to multinomial responses where the number of possible categories (e.g., types of drug or types of glass) may be more than two. The procedure is sequential and recommends stopping when the joint probability interval or ellipsoid for the estimates of the proportions is less than a given threshold in size. For trinomial data this last procedure is illustrated with a ternary diagram with an ellipse formed around the sample proportions. There is a straightforward generalization of this approach to multinomial populations with more than three categories. A conclusion provides recommendations for sampling procedures in various contexts.     

Alcohol and Parasomnias: The Statistical Evaluation of the Parasomnia Defense in Sexual Assault,Where Alcohol is Involved

Sleep sex may be a defense for alleged sexual assault. The International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD3) states: “Disorders of arousal should not be diagnosed in the presence of alcohol intoxication… The former [alcohol blackouts] are exponentially more prevalent.” A panel member of ICSD3, quoting ICSD3 asserts: “alcohol intoxication should rule out a sleep-walking defense”. This implies extremely strong support for a prosecution hypothesis (H_p) over a defense hypothesis (H_d). I use Bayesian methodology to evaluate the evidential probity of alcohol intoxication. The likelihood ratio, LR, measures the amplification of prior odds of guilt, . By Bayes' theorem, . I use data from cross-sectional studies of sexual assault and prevalence of alcohol use, in college students, with data from longitudinal studies, and data from the epidemiology of parasomnias to evaluate LR (alcohol). LR ~1.5 or 5, depending whether alcohol does, or does not, increase the risk of parasomnias. The proposition of extremely strong support for H_p implies a LR ~1,000,000, so the proposition in ICSD3 is not supported by formal analysis. The statistical reasoning in ICSD3 is unclear. There appears to be inversion of the Bayesian conditional (confusing intoxication given assault, and assault given intoxication) and failure to evaluate alcohol intoxication in H_d. Similar statistical errors in R. v Sally Clark are discussed. The American Academy of Sleep Medicine should review the statistical methodology in ICSD3.     

男孩偏好与性别失衡：一个基于需求视角的理论分析框架

出生性别比失衡是在生育转变过程中、具有男孩偏好的国家和地区不可避免的一个社会人口现象,反映出在特定的文化模式下,女性个体利益与家庭和群体利益的矛盾、错位和冲突。本文从需求视角出发,阐述了男孩偏好赖以生存的基础,提出了基于需求视角缓解男孩偏好的初步设想。文中指出,群体层面性别差异的固化,在一定程度上保证了个体层次的人身安全、保障安全、地位安全、自我价值实现。为此,缓解出生性别比失衡必须缓解主体对儿子的需求,从易到难,由表及里,层层剥蚀,集中攻坚：首先找到需求的薄弱环节,并利用性别敏感的替代模式和替代物品来满足主体多方面的需求;然后整合力量,有效动摇儿子需求的根基,缓解男孩偏好,最终达到降低出生性别比的目的。     

Assessment of approximate likelihood ratios from continuous distributions: a case study of digital camera identification

A reported likelihood ratio for the value of evidence is very often a point estimate based on various types of reference data. When presented in court, such frequentist likelihood ratio gets a higher scientific value if it is accompanied by an error bound. This becomes particularly important when the magnitude of the likelihood ratio is modest and thus is giving less support for the forwarded proposition. Here, we investigate methods for error bound estimation for the specific case of digital camera identification. The underlying probability distributions are continuous and previously proposed models for those are used, but the derived methodology is otherwise general. Both asymptotic and resampling distributions are applied in combination with different types of point estimators. The results show that resampling is preferable for assessment based on asymptotic distributions. Further, assessment of parametric estimators is superior to evaluation of kernel estimators when background data are limited.     

Study of poroscopy among South Indian population

Poroscopy is the term applied to a specialized study of pore structure found on papillary ridges of skin as a means of identification. It comes under level 3 detail of identification and hence is more reliable and accurate. The goal of this study is to estimate the importance of poroscopy for identification of individuals and to determine the gender based on frequency, type, and shape of pores. Left plain thumb prints of 200 individuals (100 men and 100 women) aged between 18 and 60 belonging to South Indian population were observed. The results have shown that women tend to have a significantly higher frequency of pores than men. Number of pores ≤ 8 pores/25 mm(2) is more likely to be of male origin and ≥9 pores/25 mm(2) is more likely to be of female origin. There was no significant sex difference based on type and shape of pores.     

Utility of the Frontonasal Suture for Estimating Age at Death in Human Skeletal Remains*

Abstract: This project evaluated the utility of the frontonasal suture for estimating age at death. Utilizing human remains of known age at death with varying degrees of fusion, curated at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City and the Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History in Washington, DC, data were collected from the ectocranial surface of 522 crania; 68 of these were sagittally sectioned, allowing collection of internal data and observation of suture closure through the bone. Degree of ectocranial suture closure does not significantly predict age, even when sex and ancestry are accounted for. Suture closure progression data were converted into a Hershkovitz ratio (sum of the measurement of open portion divided by the total suture length), and regression models demonstrate that the effect of age accounts for only 13% of variation in suture closure.     

A large-scale study of the relationship between blood and breath alcohol concentrations in New Zealand drinking drivers

Blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) and corresponding breath alcohol concentrations (BrAC) were determined for 21,582 drivers apprehended by New Zealand police. BAC was measured using headspace gas chromatography, and BrAC was determined with Intoxilyzer 5000 or Seres Ethylometre infrared analysers. The delay (DEL) between breath testing and blood sampling ranged from 0.03 to 5.4 h. BAC/BrAC ratios were calculated before and after BAC values were corrected for DEL using 19 mg/dL/h as an estimate of the blood alcohol clearance rate. Calculations were performed for single and duplicate breath samples obtained using the Intoxilyzer (groups I-1 and I-2) and Seres devices (groups S-1 and S-2). Before correction for DEL, BAC/BrAC ratios for groups I-1, I-2, S-1, and S-2 were (mean+/-SD) 2320+/-260, 2180+/-242, 2330+/-276, and 2250+/-259, respectively. After BAC values were adjusted for DEL, BAC/BrAC ratios for these groups were (mean+/-SD) 2510+/-256, 2370+/-240, 2520+/-280, and 2440+/-260, respectively. Our results indicate that in New Zealand the mean BAC/BrAC ratio is 19-26% higher than the ratio of the respective legal limits (2000).     

Financial Liberalization and Stock Price Behaviour in Asian Emerging Markets

This paper exhibits tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for seven Asian emerging markets as a result of the influence of financial market integration. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamic and determine the trade strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local index returns and to test the hypothesis that stock market prices follow a random walk, the single variance ratio tests of Lo and MacKinlay, as well as the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning are employed. The multiple statistical comparison of variance ratios is based on the Studentized Maximum Modulus distribution with control of the joint-test’s size. The weak-form market efficiency is also tested directly, using a nonparametric runs test. These tests are particularly useful for investigating stock prices the returns of which are frequently not distributed normally. Documented evidence shows that, from the perspective of local investors, weekly stock prices in major Asian emerging markets do not follow a random walk in the pre-liberalization period. However, in the post-liberalization period the weak-form efficiency hypothesis is generally adopted at the 5% level except for the smaller stock markets of Indonesia and Thailand. These empirical findings suggest that financial integration affects the return predictability in such a way that domestic investors might not be able to develop trading strategies allowing them to earn abnormal returns.